Experts polled by the Ministry of Economy expect a 6% fall in GDP in 2020

Expert organizations polled by the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture downgraded a forecast for a fall in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product in 2020 by 1.8 percentage points, from 4.2% to 6%, according to the data of the Ministry of Economy’s consensus forecast for July.

“Ukraine shows a deeper decline than the global economy, reaching 6% in 2020,” the consensus forecast says.

At the same time, experts expect the economic growth to resume in 2021 and amount to 3.2% until the end of the next year, not 2.4% as expected earlier.

Key indicators of the consensus forecast for 2020–2021, median value

Besides, experts interviewed by the Ministry of Economy improved inflation forecast for 2020 by 1.2 percentage points.

Average yearly rate in 2020 is expected to be ₴27/$1. Next year, experts forecast devaluation to ₴28.6/$1 on average.

“All elements of demand will show negative trends, but the biggest drop is anticipated in investment, down to 14.8% from 20.3% in the previous consensus forecast,” the document says.

Experts also downgraded unemployment growth forecast for this year from 9.4% to 9.6%, with a downfall to 9.2% next year.

Among the main assumptions of the consensus forecast is the high possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in H2 2020.

The consensus forecast was prepared on the basis of updated estimations by experts of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, National Bank, and over a dozen of governmental and non-governmental organizations and companies.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in mid-April, the Ministry of Economy downgraded its forecast for a real GDP fall to 4.2% in 2020. In early August, the Ministry of Economy estimated a drop in Ukraine’s real GDP in H1 at 6.5%