India will increase iron ore production by approximately 10% y/y in the 2023/2024 financial year – forecast

Iron ore production in India in the 2023/2024 financial year, according to SteelMint’s forecast, could grow by about 10% y/y – up to 275-285 million tons.

The total volume of iron ore production in India in the 2022/2023 fiscal year was 255 million tons.

One of the factors to increase the production of iron ore in the country will be the efforts of large mining companies. Thus, the contribution of PSU NMDC and OMC to the total production volumes in the current financial year is likely to be 30%.

NMDC forecasts production at 49 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 financial year, compared with 41 million tonnes in the previous financial year. By 2029/2030 financial year, the miner aims to increase production to approximately 100 million tons. The company intends to obtain the support of relevant ministries and the government to speed up the acquisition of relevant environmental permits (EC) and infrastructure expansion.

Lloyds Metals&Energy is also expected to increase iron ore production in the current financial year. In 2023, the company received environmental approval to expand its mine in the state of Maharashtra, and with the infrastructure in place, began mining to increase capacity.

Iron ore production in the state of Odisha, which is the largest producer of this raw material, is expected to reach 155-160 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 financial year, compared to 140 million tonnes in the previous financial year.

OMC, based in Odisha, plans to increase iron ore production to 34 million tonnes during the period, compared to 29.7 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 financial year. By the 2026/2027 financial year, the miner aims to increase sales to 76.9 million tonnes, in particular by increasing production at Gual from the current 6 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes. The three other powerful players in the state’s mining industry are Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) – together they can extract 60-65 million tons of ore.

The state of Karnataka in the current fiscal year can increase iron ore production to 40-45 million tons from 38 million tons in the 2022/2023 financial year. The country’s Supreme Court lifted export restrictions and eased sales regulations, so the region can count on higher profits. Many market players are opting for a hybrid model of auctions and direct sales, and Karnataka has also started exporting iron ore.

As GMK Center reported earlier, according to the forecasts of representatives of the mining industry made in March 2023, export volume of iron ore from India in the 2022/2023 financial year (April-March) will fall by 24% to about 20 million tons. This will be a five-year low. In May 2022, the Indian government introduced export duties on iron ore to meet growing demand in the local market. They were canceled in November last year, but the demand for the supply of Indian iron ore began to gain momentum only from February 2023.