The Ministry of Economy downgraded its forecast for a GDP fall to 4.2% in 2020

The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture (Ministry of Economy) downgraded its forecast for a fall in Ukraine’s GDP to 4.2% in 2020.

This was stated in the ‘Ukraine in 2020–2021: the Consequences of the Pandemic’ forecast published on the official website of the Ministry of Economy.

“Ukraine will show a deeper decline than the global economy that will reach 4.2% in 2020. The quarantine measures already taken in Ukraine will be further strengthened and last until the end of the second quarter, which will have a more negative impact on the country’s economy and slow down the recovery,” the Ministry’s experts underscored.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Economy projects a 2.4% growth in Ukraine’s GDP in 2021.

Inflation will increase to 7% in 2020, but will drop to 5.9% in 2021.

“There will be a downward trend in demand, with the largest investment contraction to 14.8%,” add the analysts.

According to experts, the budget deficit will reach 5.6% of GDP this year. Unemployment will reach 9.4%, with a further decline to 9.1% in 2021.

The Ministry of Economy expects exports to shrink by 7.9% and imports by 12.2% in 2020.

As reported earlier, the Ministry of Economy downgraded a forecast for a fall in Ukraine’s GDP to 3.9% in 2020. According to experts, the economy will start to rebound in H2 2020 and accelerate in the years to come.