The Ministry of Economy expects a 4.1% surge in Ukraine’s GDP in 2021

The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine projects a 4.1% increase in Ukraine’s GDP in 2021, according to the consensus forecast posted on the Ministry’s website.

The Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine’s GDP growth to slow down to 3.7% in 2022.

“Experts expect a GDP growth at 4.1% in 2021 against the previously projected 3.2%, and 3.7% in 2022 against 3.5%. All demand components will have positive dynamics, with the highest growth recorded in investment,” according to the Ministry’s consensus forecast.

Ukraine’s economic growth rates in 2023–2024 will be stable — 3.5% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.

“A comparative analysis of the obtained averaged quantitative assumptions for 2020–2022 and the assumptions provided by experts in July 2020 make it possible to trace unanimity regrading a hike in average annual minimum wages, average annual price for Brent oil, average annual change in iron ore price (with a steep increase in 2021),” reads the consensus forecast.

According to the Ministry, Ukraine’s GDP may decline by 2.2% in Q1.

GMK Center analysis showed that growth prospects of the Ukrainian economy in 2021 are estimated at an average of 3–5%.

As reported earlier, S&P Global forecasts a 4% growth in Ukraine’s GDP in 2021. The agency affirmed Ukraine’s rating, B/B (stable outlook). On the other hand, Fitch expects a 4.1% economic growth in Ukraine in 2021. JP Morgan projects a 5.6% increase in Ukraine’s GDP in 2021.